Blog: A big drop in time! Stalk Nicole in the tropics!


We are coming off a hot November weekend. High temperatures were in the 80s both days. We didn’t break any records, but we were well above average.

High temperatures for the past 2 weeks

I had family downtown Chicago. We went to the parks both days but both days we cut it a bit short as it was hot in the sun and quite humid. The breeze helped sometimes. We even went to Fort beach. Monroe. (We didn’t swim). Water temperatures are in the low-mid 60s.

Today we will begin the transition to cooler/drier weather. A cold front is approaching our region. The high pressure is offshore.

Regional weather map

The cold front will slowly slide southeastward today. The wind will change direction from southwest to north. However, it will not be a strong wind. Also, we will have a mix of sun and cloud for some time. So the high temperatures will still be able to reach the mid-upper 70s.

Forecast Weather Today

The humidity will drop (hopefully). Dew points will fall around 40 in the evening.

There will be isolated showers along the front. It will start a little before noon. They will go until late afternoon. In the early evening they will fall in northeastern North Carolina.

By tomorrow, we will have much colder and windier conditions for Election Day. The cold front will fall far to the south with the build up of high pressures. Subtropical Storm Nicole will strengthen near the northern Bahamas. (More on that in a moment). The pressure difference between the major systems will create a strong northeasterly wind over our region. They will run at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Wind forecast tomorrow

The dry air and high pressure will create plenty of sunshine, but the wind will reduce temperatures. Highs will only be near 60 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

Expected weather tomorrow

It will be a little chilly for Election Day voters who have to line up outside for a while. Times will be in the 50s most of the time.

Election Day Predictions

Although it may be better than standing out in 80 degree weather and wet conditions.

Minor tidal flooding could be bothersome tomorrow through Wednesday. However, I don’t think it will cause too much trouble. We will monitor the potential for ocean flooding along the Outer Banks.

We will still be cool on Wednesday but the high will move a little east as Nicole moves west. This should bring us less wind and a slight warming. However, highs will remain in the 60s. We will be near 70s on Thursday with a mix of sun and cloud. Then we may have a lot of rain next weekend. It will depend on Nicole’s lead.

Subtropical Storm Nicole officially formed this morning during the 5am update. Most thunderstorms are away from the center. This is therefore the main reason for being (sub)tropical.

Nicole on satellite

The system is expected to bounce westward over the next few days. As it moves over warm Atlantic waters, it will likely transform into a tropical system. It could happen today. It will then make landfall somewhere in East Florida. The possible path takes him south to Miami and north to Cape Canaveral.

Nicole’s track

You will notice that it is forecast to be a strong tropical storm before making landfall, but it could become a hurricane briefly.

After this point, it should head northwest. It could cross the Gulf of Mexico for some time. It would be Friday. Between Friday and Saturday, the system should turn northeast.

Nicole’s track

at that time, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast trajectory. The models are quite shared.

Forecasting models

It could eventually move along the coast. It might move inland and weaken a bit. If he stays offshore, he might retain some strength. However, we would likely be on the weaker side of the storm. Either way, I think Nicole’s moisture will push north into our area. Even when the storm is still far to our south. So, at the moment, rain is likely for the weekend.

SFP model

There will likely be a lot of changes in this part of the forecast as it depends on a few synoptic weather features over the United States like a few fronts and a high pressure area. So check back for updates over the next few days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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