Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: Desperate for Rain? Here’s when Arkansas got to see some

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LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – It’s no secret that the weather has been very dry in recent weeks. Most counties ended September about 1 to 2 inches below average for precipitation after a generally dry August.

Our current drought monitor shows severe drought across most of central Arkansas, with moderate drought around northern Arkansas. Much of southern Arkansas is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

While the forecast for next week looks dry, there are signs that rain could be on the horizon. Some long-term models suggest that rain will return to the forecast beyond the 7-day forecast.

Here is an overview of the European model. This pattern shows that the chance of rain is increasing on Thursday, October 13. The heaviest rain on this future trail is in eastern Arkansas.

Potential forecast path: European model

The European model shows the possibility that beneficial rains will fall at the end of next week. Precipitation totals are currently expected to be about half an inch to one inch in total.

Precipitation forecast: European model

The GFS model also shows a chance of rain on Thursday the 13th, but not as widespread and heavy.

Potential forecast path: GFS model

The GFS shows only a few tenths of an inch of rain total through next Saturday the 15th. Most areas are expected to remain below half an inch.

Precipitation forecast: GFS model

For the next 7 days, the chances of rain seem pretty slim. However, a few isolated showers look possible early next week in northern Arkansas, primarily. The weather forecast center indicates a slight chance of rain for the next 7 days.

Weather forecast center 7-day rainfall forecast.

A little further into the future, covering the next 6-10 days, the Climate Prediction Center has all of Arkansas receiving average precipitation. This is valid from October 10 to 14.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day rainfall forecast.

The same goes for the next 8-14 days. It is from October 12 to 18. Only far western Arkansas has the chance of slightly above average precipitation.

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precipitation forecast.

Overall, the current chance of rain does not seem overwhelming for the natural state, however, there are signs that some may see much needed rain. The models discussed in this article are long-range models. These give meteorologists an idea of ​​future trends and potential forecasts, however, they will likely continue to change as the forecast gets closer.

Stick with the Arkansas Storm team over the next few days as we continue to monitor the chance of rain amid the drought.

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